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制造业是国民经济的主体，其重要性不言而喻。就2023年而言，制造业在技术创新、数字化转型和可持续发展方面都取得了重要的进展。作为全球领先的行业专属商业云软件提供商，Infor对于2024年制造业的发展进行了分析与预测。

Infor大中华区商业咨询高级总监鹿崇

一、保持业务平衡仍将是一项挑战

在过去的四年里，制造业高管人员一直在努力应对不断变化的外部环境和市场需求。我们预测，在2024年，企业管理者仍然会面对这些挑战。想要努力平衡业务，迎来更多的发展，企业管理者就需要加大对软件和其他数字技术的投资力度，积极抵御2024年的易变性、不确定性、复杂性和模糊性（VUCA）。

各大制造商将加快投资步伐，提升自身智能制造水平，以确保具备长期盈利的能力。在2024年，制造业将具备两大主题：一是继续实施智能工厂计划以实现有针对性的业务拓展；二是利用数字技术提高供应链的稳定性，增强供应商、合作伙伴与消费者之间的联系。

二、人工智能将成为优化供应链和库存的关键

在全球范围内，根据企业采用的库存管理理念，供应链管理方法大致可以分为即时制（just-in-time）和防备制（just-in-case）两种。企业通常会根据市场环境和实际运营情况在这两种方法之间做出选择。

过去二十年，在市场较为平稳的情况下，各大企业会倾向于优化库存成本，因此，“即时制”受到青睐。但近年来，企业为应对突发事件，开始转而采用“防备制”的库存管理方式，这种方法导致了企业存储空间不足及仓库租金上涨问题。当前，我们正处于VUCA时代，信息爆炸、突发事件频发等现象显著，越来越多的制造商将转向采用数据驱动的敏捷管理方法，并根据实时情况灵活调整库存。

我们预测，为了平衡库存成本和风险，在2024年，制造商将增加对人工智能增强型供应链管理解决方案的投资。其中，制造商制胜市场的关键将是能够预测需求和风险、考虑供应商可靠性和敏捷性并顾及跨大陆运输风险的供应链管理解决方案。

三、自动化技术将解决仓库管理难题

在过去几年里，制造业正步入一种超速运转状态。各种产品同时迎来交货高峰期，这导致港口和仓库拥堵不堪。制造业一直在谨慎应对供应链的“牛鞭效应”，其中，仓库利用率和租金最容易受到这种效应的影响。在2023年，制造业的重点是在增加库存和消除干扰风险之间找到平衡。

我们预计，在2024年，利用自动化技术优化仓储容量将成为制造业发展的重点。仓库管理系统（WMS）有助于优化货物运输速度、减少错误、提高劳动效率、优化仓库储存。随着客户对供应链灵活性、透明度和生产能力的要求不断提高，在2024年，仓库管理系统与其他供应链解决方案的整合将会加速，仓库容量将朝着合理化方向发展。

四、人工智能将助力工业4.0

目前，人工智能已成为工业4.0转型的核心。预计在2024年，生成式人工智能相关用例将趋于成熟，并且生成式人工智能还将与传统预测式人工智能协同发展，促进更多领域生产能力进一步提高。

目前，有四种用例最有可能走向成熟并得到更广泛的采用。

一是预测性维护。由人工智能驱动的预测性维护最初仅被用于预防代价高昂的故障，而现在该技术已发展到可以用于协调维护计划以优化生产。未来，为了顺应客户不断增长的需求，供应商格局将有望进一步优化调整，更多样化的解决方案将不断迭代升级，并且工业设备企业将转向服务化模式，这将成为制造业发展的额外驱动力。

二是动态供应链管理。人工智能应用在库存管理和需求预测方面形成影响力之后，将拓展到全行业，彻底改变从需求管理到“最后一公里”交付等环节的全供应链管理模式。

三是通过认知分析提高产品质量。随着生成式人工智能的引入，采用由人工智能驱动的认知分析来加强质量控制的方法将被更多的人接受并应用。

四是借助由生成式人工智能驱动的创造力来进行产品设计。产品设计领域将迎来一场由生成式人工智能驱动的变革，设计师将可以利用算法，根据消费者偏好和市场趋势生成新的产品概念，缩短制造业的产品设计周期，在不断变化的市场环境中让产品更贴合客户需求。

五、生态系统将成为中心

近年来，以生态系统为中心的理念日益获得大众认同，预计在2024年，这一趋势将更为凸显。领先的制造商正在从以产品为中心的思维模式转变为以现代平台为导向的数字化思维模式。在新时代，综合平台为敏捷性提升和数字化转型提供了渠道和“黏合剂”。制造商将越来越依赖于平台的灵活性，而非整体的产品。

总之，在2024年，制造业将依靠工业4.0和人工智能技术继续发展，以应对VUCA环境带来的挑战。这种转变不仅有助于提高生产能力，更重要的是可以推动技术创新、可持续发展，并将人类创造力与技术实力结合，打造更美好的未来。

翻译：

Manufacturing Outlook for 2024

Manufacturing industry is the main body of national economy, its importance is self-evident. As far as 2023 is concerned, the manufacturing industry has made important progress in technological innovation, digital transformation and sustainable development. As the world’s leading provider of industry-specific commercial cloud software, Infor has analyzed and predicted the development of the manufacturing industry in 2024.

Lu Chong, Infor’s senior director of business consulting in Greater China

First, maintaining business balance will remain a challenge

Over the past four years, manufacturing executives have struggled to respond to the changing external environment and market demands. We predict that business managers will continue to face these challenges in 2024. As they strive to balance their businesses and embrace more growth, business leaders will need to invest heavily in software and other digital technologies to combat the variability, Uncertainty, Complexity and ambiguity (VUCA) of 2024.

Major manufacturers will accelerate the pace of investment and improve their own intelligent manufacturing level to ensure long-term profitability. In 2024, the manufacturing industry will have two main themes: one is to continue to implement the smart factory program for targeted business expansion; The second is to use digital technology to improve the stability of the supply chain and enhance the connection between suppliers, partners and consumers.

Second, artificial intelligence will be the key to optimizing supply chains and inventory

Globally, according to the inventory management concept adopted by enterprises, supply chain management methods can be roughly divided into two types: just-in-time and just-in-case. Companies often choose between these two approaches based on market conditions and actual operations.

In the past two decades, when the market was relatively stable, companies tended to optimize inventory costs, so the just-in-time system was favored. However, in recent years, in order to cope with emergencies, enterprises began to turn to the “precautionary” inventory management method, which led to the shortage of enterprise storage space and the increase of warehouse rents. At present, we are in the era of VUCA, information explosion, frequent incidents and other phenomena are significant, more and more manufacturers will turn to data-driven agile management methods, and flexibly adjust inventory according to real-time conditions.

We predict that in order to balance inventory costs and risks, in 2024, manufacturers will increase their investments in AI-enhanced supply chain management solutions. The key to market success for manufacturers will be supply chain management solutions that anticipate demand and risk, consider supplier reliability and agility, and take into account the risks of transcontinental transportation.

Third, automation technology will solve the problem of warehouse management

Over the past few years, manufacturing has gone into overdrive. The simultaneous peak delivery of all kinds of products has led to congestion at ports and warehouses. The manufacturing industry has been carefully dealing with the bullwhip effect in the supply chain, where warehouse utilization and rental rates are the most vulnerable to this effect. In 2023, manufacturing is focused on finding a balance between increasing inventories and eliminating the risk of disruption.

We expect that in 2024, optimizing storage capacity with automation technology will become the focus of manufacturing development. Warehouse management systems (WMS) help to optimize the speed of freight transportation, reduce errors, improve labor efficiency, and optimize warehouse storage. As customer demands for supply chain flexibility, transparency and productivity continue to increase, the integration of warehouse management systems with other supply chain solutions will accelerate and warehouse capacity will move towards rationalization in 2024.

Fourth, artificial intelligence will help Industry 4.0

At present, artificial intelligence has become the core of industry 4.0 transformation. It is expected that in 2024, the use cases related to generative artificial intelligence will mature, and generative artificial intelligence will also develop in tandem with traditional predictive artificial intelligence, promoting the further improvement of production capacity in more fields.

Right now, there are four use cases that are most likely to mature and gain wider adoption.

One is predictive maintenance. While AI-driven predictive maintenance was initially used only to prevent costly failures, the technology has now advanced to the point where it can be used to coordinate maintenance schedules to optimize production. In the future, in order to meet the growing needs of customers, the supplier landscape is expected to be further optimized and adjusted, more diversified solutions will be iterated and upgraded, and industrial equipment companies will turn to the service-oriented model, which will become an additional driving force for the development of the manufacturing industry.

Second, dynamic supply chain management. After the impact of artificial intelligence applications in inventory management and demand forecasting, it will expand to the entire industry, completely changing the entire supply chain management model from demand management to “last mile” delivery.

The third is to improve product quality through cognitive analysis. With the introduction of generative AI, the approach of using AI-driven cognitive analytics to enhance quality control will be accepted and applied by more people.

Fourth, product design with the help of creativity driven by generative AI. Product design will usher in a transformation driven by generative artificial intelligence, designers will be able to use algorithms to generate new product concepts based on consumer preferences and market trends, shorten the product design cycle in manufacturing, and make products more relevant to customer needs in a changing market environment.

Fifth, the ecosystem will be central

In recent years, the concept of ecosystem centrality has gained increasing acceptance, and this trend is expected to become more prominent in 2024. Leading manufacturers are shifting from a product-centric mindset to a modern platform-oriented digital mindset. In the new era, integrated platforms provide the channel and “glue” for agility and digital transformation. Manufacturers will increasingly rely on the flexibility of the platform rather than the overall product.

In conclusion, in 2024, the manufacturing industry will rely on Industry 4.0 and artificial intelligence technologies to continue to evolve to meet the challenges posed by the VUCA environment. This transformation will not only help increase production capacity, but more importantly, it will drive technological innovation, sustainable development, and combine human creativity with technological strength to build a better future.

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编辑| 王雨婷  

校对| 秦必功      

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